Market

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Duration : 0:10:0

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Financial Markets (ECON 252)

Options introduce an essential nonlineary into portfolio management. They are contracts between buyers and writers, who agree on exercise prices and dates at which the buyer can buy or sell the underlying (such as a stock). Options are priced based on the price and volatility of the underlying asset as well as the duration of the option contract. The Black-Scholes options pricing model is one of the most famous equations in finance and offers a useful first approximation for prices for option contracts. Options exchanges and futures exchanges both are involved in creating a liquid and transparent market for options. Options are not just for stocks; they are also important for other asset classes, such as real estate.

Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website: http://open.yale.edu/courses

This course was recorded in Spring 2008.

Duration : 1:7:51

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Today was the last day of the month and quarter, and therefore it held quite a bit of significance. While most people expected a nice rally due to the window dressing theory, we ended up getting a strong sell off on bad news followed by bulls buying the dips. My theory is that today is probably going to be the last time the bulls will buy the dip. More specifically, if tomorrow’s jobs numbers shoves the markets down, we will not see the bulls buy back in, the bulls that bought today will be trapped and probably sell in panic. For me to be a full on bear though, I have to see a break of the 1035-1040 buffer zone. We also look at the monthly candle and how it closed below the 20 SMA monthly as resistance. Last time we hit the 20 SMA monthly we fell significantly lower. In addition i talk about shorting a basket of individual stocks VS the SPY: WYNN, LVS, SBUX, AMZN, AAPL, GYMB.

Duration : 0:5:2

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Today we look at how the market is forming a possible top and end to the rally for the short and short/medium terms. We see that many short ETFS are forming capitulation bottoms, and that many stocks are rallying beyond sustainable levels. With that in mind, we believe that one of the targets for this rally will form the last resistance, and we will begin at least a 20-25% consolidation. While we do have still a potential 1-3% more upside from here, going short today was smarter than going long. This market in the near term (1-2days) could consolidate once more, if not reverse. Our targets are 1053-1055, or 1067-1068 and finally 1088 (if it ever reaches it), based on fib retracement targets. In these videos we show you the Dow and how it hits resistance, the S&P and how that hits resistance of the wedge and horizontal price resistance. We show you individual stocks such as the USO, XLF, SRS, JPM, SPY, WYNN and MGM.

Duration : 0:5:1

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Today I give an overview of the last day of the month and its importance to the shorter term plays. The bulls seem to stay in control in this market but then lose their grip when a close above resistance lines need to be made. The bears, put the minimal amount of effort required to close below strong resistance lines, and thus a more bearish sentiment should start forming pretty soon. A monthly candle close below 875 on the S&P definitely vows for the bears, although it doesn’t necessarily mean that there is no more upside from here. I explain my trades for the day, and give people a nice SRS options trade. I also look at the Dow Jones industrial chart, GS, XLF, SRS and SPY.

Duration : 0:9:19

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Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy

NARRATOR: Globalization did not cause global poverty, but it did make us more aware of it. And by creating a single global market, it raised the question of how that market benefits the world’s poorest nations.

DANIEL YERGIN: We are seeing around the world a movement towards greater reliance on markets, greater confidence in markets. But for that confidence to last it has to be seen that these markets are fair, that they are delivering the benefits widely, that people are benefiting from them. And if they don’t have that kind of legitimacy, then the confidence is not going to remain, and the markets will be vulnerable to disruption and be replaced by other kinds of controls. So every day the market has to earn and prove its legitimacy, and that’s a big test, particularly in the developing world, where the number-one issue, the central preoccupational concern, is the issue of poverty, and delivering the goods means lifting people out of poverty. And that more than anything else is what these markets would be judged by.

JEFFREY SACHS: Professor of Economics, Harvard University: The world is more unequal than at any time in world history. There’s a basic reason for that, which is that 200 years ago everybody was poor. A relatively small part of the world achieved what the economists call a modern economic growth. Those countries represent only about one-sixth of humanity, and five-sixths of humanity is what we call the developing world. It’s the vast majority of the world. The gap can be 100-1, maybe a gap of $30,000 per person and $300 per person. And that’s absolutely astounding to be on the same planet and to have that extreme variation in material well being.

Watch all of Commanding Heights at PBS.org

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/hi/story/index.html

Duration : 0:7:28

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In this video, Idan goes on and on and on about what he believes will happen in the market as we move forward next decade. He also talks about the shorter term picture, and what we should be expecting in the days to come.

Duration : 0:10:18

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Today we look at the USO and UNG and try to decipher where they are headed and what possible trades could be on the table. We believe that the USO is the reason why the S&P remains up while other stocks have potentially topped already.

Duration : 0:5:1

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Today we look at some fibonacci targets for the markets. SPY has a target of between 109.10 and 109.70 whereas gold has already hit it’s target at around 104. I believe that in the very very near term, we will see GLD under perform SPY due to ti’s overbought status. We went ahead and placed a short gold and long SPY trade today. Short GLD at $104.40, and a Long SPY at $107.40. Our stop is a net credit of 0.25 cents for now, and will widen. We also look at JPM as we have to see financials get stronger in order for the market to push on ahead. Rememeber that we are in options expiration so today could be a crazy day, but if we break the SPY 50 SMA daily to the down side, and breakdown the wedge be VERY careful, this market is very susceptible to a crash.

Duration : 0:5:1

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