Options and Stock Market Technical Chart Analysis for May 29, 2009 by Idan Koren
Saturday, November 21st, 2009
Hey guys,
Today I give out a daily, weekly and monthly update of what I think is to come. Today’s last 10 minute of trading was probably due money managers and institutions wanting to have some of that long exposure to show their clients and tell them that they have not totally missed the 4-5% move up for the month of may. In the past 2.5 weeks we have been trading in a descending triangle formation, and we managed to break out in the last 10 minutes of trading, just to find resistance at another descending resistance which dates back to november and the january 6th high. In the first 5 minutes of the afterhours trading both the ES and the SPY hit the 200 SMA, even though the S&P remains 1 % away from the 200 DMA, there is a chance, that it may never touch it, since it’s been touched in the after-hours. We could however, see a small push on the S&P to touch that 200 SMA at 924-926 only to back off later in the week. Note: The Dow Jones 200 SMA is still about 4-5% away though, and that a fakeout slightly higher is possible. The financials today were weak, and kept the market from breaking to new highs, although at around 3:15pm the financials finally caught a bid and helped this market break out of a symmetric triangle on the 10 minute candle scale and then we saw the massive shoot up higher. Today I also look at the VIX, XLF, and explain why i see that we could move lower for the next month or month and a half.
Duration : 0:9:36
Today I look at the SPY, GS, VIX, AAPL, AMZN and talk about some other charts as we end the month with a Doji candle and the day down with somewhat stronger volume. The action is still not bearish and is more neutral, wednesday and thursday will be incredibly important.
Today was the last day of the month and quarter, and therefore it held quite a bit of significance. While most people expected a nice rally due to the window dressing theory, we ended up getting a strong sell off on bad news followed by bulls buying the dips. My theory is that today is probably going to be the last time the bulls will buy the dip. More specifically, if tomorrow’s jobs numbers shoves the markets down, we will not see the bulls buy back in, the bulls that bought today will be trapped and probably sell in panic. For me to be a full on bear though, I have to see a break of the 1035-1040 buffer zone. We also look at the monthly candle and how it closed below the 20 SMA monthly as resistance. Last time we hit the 20 SMA monthly we fell significantly lower. In addition i talk about shorting a basket of individual stocks VS the SPY: WYNN, LVS, SBUX, AMZN, AAPL, GYMB.
Today we look at how the market is forming a possible top and end to the rally for the short and short/medium terms. We see that many short ETFS are forming capitulation bottoms, and that many stocks are rallying beyond sustainable levels. With that in mind, we believe that one of the targets for this rally will form the last resistance, and we will begin at least a 20-25% consolidation. While we do have still a potential 1-3% more upside from here, going short today was smarter than going long. This market in the near term (1-2days) could consolidate once more, if not reverse. Our targets are 1053-1055, or 1067-1068 and finally 1088 (if it ever reaches it), based on fib retracement targets. In these videos we show you the Dow and how it hits resistance, the S&P and how that hits resistance of the wedge and horizontal price resistance. We show you individual stocks such as the USO, XLF, SRS, JPM, SPY, WYNN and MGM.
Today I give an overview of the last day of the month and its importance to the shorter term plays. The bulls seem to stay in control in this market but then lose their grip when a close above resistance lines need to be made. The bears, put the minimal amount of effort required to close below strong resistance lines, and thus a more bearish sentiment should start forming pretty soon. A monthly candle close below 875 on the S&P definitely vows for the bears, although it doesn’t necessarily mean that there is no more upside from here. I explain my trades for the day, and give people a nice SRS options trade. I also look at the Dow Jones industrial chart, GS, XLF, SRS and SPY.
Economic Collapse Video (September 21, 2009)
http://www.thirtydaychallenge.com/tdc/day02/ Market Samurai is a fantastic tool for keyword research and keyword marketing research: http://www.thirtydaychallenge.com/tdc/day02/
In this video, Idan goes on and on and on about what he believes will happen in the market as we move forward next decade. He also talks about the shorter term picture, and what we should be expecting in the days to come.
Today we look at the USO and UNG and try to decipher where they are headed and what possible trades could be on the table. We believe that the USO is the reason why the S&P remains up while other stocks have potentially topped already.
http://www.technicalanalysisbook.com