Options and Stock Market Technical Chart Analysis for July 24, 2009 by Idan Koren
Tuesday, March 9th, 2010
Today I look at some overbought conditions both on the RSI and MACD, and explain the significance in these embedded environments as we hit some extremely strong necktie resistances between two huge trendlines. While the 38.2% are very close, and people expect us to hit it, I believe the first push lower of either a reversal or consolidation might start as soon as early or late monday and will continue for more than one day. In this video I also look at the inverse H&S on the Dow and S&P that broke out and explain what the ramifications may be for a very strong red week. I also look at GS, AAPL, AMZN.
Duration : 0:11:0
Today we step back and look at the last 3 days of trading as they have broken both the ascending wedge formation and the megaphone formation to the downside (both are very bearish patterns). 
Today I look only at the SPY and VIX chart, but I forecast two potential scenarios in the market, that both lead to a higher (lower volume) ending day (0.5-1%) for tuesdays trade. The first is a small gap higher due to the amateurish action that happened in the last 20 minutes of trading and then a sustained low volume increase until the end of the day, potentially forming a doji green candle. The second is a continued sell off lower to hit the 88.20 level in which we will reverse mid day and end the day potentially flat or slightly positive. I hope you take my words of advice that I put out on this video because it is extremely important in order to become a good trader!
Friday’s trading day was a game changer, the last hour rally was not one of just a short squeeze before a weekend but one that showed that we are now trading in a triangle formation and we could potentially break to the upside. I, However, suggest people play the triangle formation before getting all that bullish. The reason i have more inclination to the bullish side is because a triangle formation after a rally is usually looked upon as consolidation and the next move is usually a breakout to the upside, once that happens the market can shoot to the 1030-1040, and that will probably be the end of Primary wave 2, before a new bear market begins.
Today I update my fellow viewers on what the last 2 days of action really mean for this market. The DOJI candle that formed today on incredible low day could be viewed as two things: The first, is that it is a consolidation pattern for the huge move up that we had on Thursday. The second is that it is an indecision reversal candle. i would believe the former only if we get another day of consolidation down on low volume. However, I believe the latter because there are a lot of resistance which points could point to a move lower. We formed a double top area at 922 on the SPX, and this could actually be the top of the right shoulder. As we form the Head and Shoulders formation, other resistances such as the 923 level, descending channel, 20 SMA Daily lie overhead and could provide a strong push lower. Monday’s action could be one of a fakeout, we might get a rally in early trading to hit those resistances and then fall down from there to at least down 1.5%. If we fall down on low volume though, I will look to position myself long. My other advice is to not get too bullish before the 923-924 is broken. And also to take profits at the 880 level if it is reached at any point next week. We could very well break 880 but i think taking some profits off there is important and essential. I look at the SPY, AAPL, GS and VIX
Here is what I think might be happening in the near future!
Today I look at the SPY, GS, VIX, AAPL, AMZN and talk about some other charts as we end the month with a Doji candle and the day down with somewhat stronger volume. The action is still not bearish and is more neutral, wednesday and thursday will be incredibly important.
Today was the last day of the month and quarter, and therefore it held quite a bit of significance. While most people expected a nice rally due to the window dressing theory, we ended up getting a strong sell off on bad news followed by bulls buying the dips. My theory is that today is probably going to be the last time the bulls will buy the dip. More specifically, if tomorrow’s jobs numbers shoves the markets down, we will not see the bulls buy back in, the bulls that bought today will be trapped and probably sell in panic. For me to be a full on bear though, I have to see a break of the 1035-1040 buffer zone. We also look at the monthly candle and how it closed below the 20 SMA monthly as resistance. Last time we hit the 20 SMA monthly we fell significantly lower. In addition i talk about shorting a basket of individual stocks VS the SPY: WYNN, LVS, SBUX, AMZN, AAPL, GYMB.
Today we look at how the market is forming a possible top and end to the rally for the short and short/medium terms. We see that many short ETFS are forming capitulation bottoms, and that many stocks are rallying beyond sustainable levels. With that in mind, we believe that one of the targets for this rally will form the last resistance, and we will begin at least a 20-25% consolidation. While we do have still a potential 1-3% more upside from here, going short today was smarter than going long. This market in the near term (1-2days) could consolidate once more, if not reverse. Our targets are 1053-1055, or 1067-1068 and finally 1088 (if it ever reaches it), based on fib retracement targets. In these videos we show you the Dow and how it hits resistance, the S&P and how that hits resistance of the wedge and horizontal price resistance. We show you individual stocks such as the USO, XLF, SRS, JPM, SPY, WYNN and MGM.
Today we look at the USO and UNG and try to decipher where they are headed and what possible trades could be on the table. We believe that the USO is the reason why the S&P remains up while other stocks have potentially topped already.