Options and Stock Market Technical Chart Analysis for July 2, 2009 by Idan Koren (PART1)
Saturday, January 30th, 2010
Hey guys,
I have compiled a 3 part long video that not only talks about the SPY to its full extent but also about 8 different charts and how we’re suppose to read into this type of market. In this video I concentrate on the SPY. For the SPY I look at a potential move lower in early trading only to reverse and end up a little higher. I do believe that the H&S will eventually break but this might take another 4-5 days. I look at potential targets for the SPY as we move lower and where I believe shorting would be most desirable.
Duration : 0:9:43
Today I look only at the SPY and VIX chart, but I forecast two potential scenarios in the market, that both lead to a higher (lower volume) ending day (0.5-1%) for tuesdays trade. The first is a small gap higher due to the amateurish action that happened in the last 20 minutes of trading and then a sustained low volume increase until the end of the day, potentially forming a doji green candle. The second is a continued sell off lower to hit the 88.20 level in which we will reverse mid day and end the day potentially flat or slightly positive. I hope you take my words of advice that I put out on this video because it is extremely important in order to become a good trader!
Friday’s trading day was a game changer, the last hour rally was not one of just a short squeeze before a weekend but one that showed that we are now trading in a triangle formation and we could potentially break to the upside. I, However, suggest people play the triangle formation before getting all that bullish. The reason i have more inclination to the bullish side is because a triangle formation after a rally is usually looked upon as consolidation and the next move is usually a breakout to the upside, once that happens the market can shoot to the 1030-1040, and that will probably be the end of Primary wave 2, before a new bear market begins.
Today I update my fellow viewers on what the last 2 days of action really mean for this market. The DOJI candle that formed today on incredible low day could be viewed as two things: The first, is that it is a consolidation pattern for the huge move up that we had on Thursday. The second is that it is an indecision reversal candle. i would believe the former only if we get another day of consolidation down on low volume. However, I believe the latter because there are a lot of resistance which points could point to a move lower. We formed a double top area at 922 on the SPX, and this could actually be the top of the right shoulder. As we form the Head and Shoulders formation, other resistances such as the 923 level, descending channel, 20 SMA Daily lie overhead and could provide a strong push lower. Monday’s action could be one of a fakeout, we might get a rally in early trading to hit those resistances and then fall down from there to at least down 1.5%. If we fall down on low volume though, I will look to position myself long. My other advice is to not get too bullish before the 923-924 is broken. And also to take profits at the 880 level if it is reached at any point next week. We could very well break 880 but i think taking some profits off there is important and essential. I look at the SPY, AAPL, GS and VIX
Today was the last day of the month and quarter, and therefore it held quite a bit of significance. While most people expected a nice rally due to the window dressing theory, we ended up getting a strong sell off on bad news followed by bulls buying the dips. My theory is that today is probably going to be the last time the bulls will buy the dip. More specifically, if tomorrow’s jobs numbers shoves the markets down, we will not see the bulls buy back in, the bulls that bought today will be trapped and probably sell in panic. For me to be a full on bear though, I have to see a break of the 1035-1040 buffer zone. We also look at the monthly candle and how it closed below the 20 SMA monthly as resistance. Last time we hit the 20 SMA monthly we fell significantly lower. In addition i talk about shorting a basket of individual stocks VS the SPY: WYNN, LVS, SBUX, AMZN, AAPL, GYMB.
Today I give an overview of the last day of the month and its importance to the shorter term plays. The bulls seem to stay in control in this market but then lose their grip when a close above resistance lines need to be made. The bears, put the minimal amount of effort required to close below strong resistance lines, and thus a more bearish sentiment should start forming pretty soon. A monthly candle close below 875 on the S&P definitely vows for the bears, although it doesn’t necessarily mean that there is no more upside from here. I explain my trades for the day, and give people a nice SRS options trade. I also look at the Dow Jones industrial chart, GS, XLF, SRS and SPY.
In this video, Idan goes on and on and on about what he believes will happen in the market as we move forward next decade. He also talks about the shorter term picture, and what we should be expecting in the days to come.
Today we look at the USO and UNG and try to decipher where they are headed and what possible trades could be on the table. We believe that the USO is the reason why the S&P remains up while other stocks have potentially topped already.
Today we look at some fibonacci targets for the markets. SPY has a target of between 109.10 and 109.70 whereas gold has already hit it’s target at around 104. I believe that in the very very near term, we will see GLD under perform SPY due to ti’s overbought status. We went ahead and placed a short gold and long SPY trade today. Short GLD at $104.40, and a Long SPY at $107.40. Our stop is a net credit of 0.25 cents for now, and will widen. We also look at JPM as we have to see financials get stronger in order for the market to push on ahead. Rememeber that we are in options expiration so today could be a crazy day, but if we break the SPY 50 SMA daily to the down side, and breakdown the wedge be VERY careful, this market is very susceptible to a crash.